Buy Rigetti Post-Earnings Dip?

Rigetti Computing: Navigating Quantum Turbulence or Charting a Course to Glory?
Quantum computing stocks have become the siren song of Wall Street—irresistibly alluring but fraught with hidden dangers. Among these, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stands out like a lighthouse in a storm, its beam flickering between promise and peril. The stock’s 61% plunge from its January highs has left investors clutching their life vests, wondering whether to abandon ship or double down. Let’s hoist the sails and explore whether RGTI is a shipwreck or a treasure map in disguise.

The Quantum Gambit: Why Rigetti’s Rollercoaster Matters

Rigetti isn’t just another tech stock—it’s a bet on the future of computation itself. Quantum advantage—the holy grail where quantum computers outmuscle classical ones—remains 4-5 years away, per CEO Subodh Kulkarni. That’s an eternity in Wall Street’s ADD timeline. Yet, Rigetti’s recent $0.13 EPS “profit” (courtesy of accounting wizardry, not operational prowess) and revenue miss show the gulf between hype and reality. The stock’s post-earnings blues aren’t a fluke; data shows a 60% chance of negative one-day returns after earnings. Ouch.
But here’s the kicker: quantum’s “when” isn’t “if.” Governments and corporations are pouring billions into the sector, and Rigetti’s 260x forward price-sales ratio screams “future or folly.” So, do you buy the dip or bail? Let’s dive into the three currents shaping RGTI’s voyage.
—

1. Storm Warning: Why Rigetti’s Waters Are Choppy

A. The “Profit” Mirage
That surprise EPS profit? Smoke and mirrors. Rigetti’s revenue ($3.1M last quarter) missed estimates by a nautical mile, and its $1.3M government grant padded the numbers. Meanwhile, R&D costs are ballooning like a rogue wave—up 40% YoY. Cash burn? A cool $60M annually. With just $99M in liquidity, Rigetti’s got about 18 months before it’s bailing water.
B. Technical Tsunami
Chartists are sweating. The stock breached the $1.50 support level—a psychological Rubicon. Next stop? The dreaded “penny stock” zone. Volume spikes on down days suggest sharks are circling. Until Rigetti reclaims $2.50 (its 50-day moving average), technical traders won’t touch it.
C. Quantum Competition: David vs. Goliaths
IBM’s 433-qubit Osprey processor. Google’s 70-qubit breakthrough. IonQ’s $2B market cap. Rigetti? Its 84-qubit Aspen-M-3 is impressive but niche. Partnerships (like Quanta Computer) help, but in a capex-heavy arms race, Rigetti’s $200M market cap looks like a dinghy next to aircraft carriers.
—

2. Silver Linings: The Case for Staying Onboard

A. Government Lifelines
Quantum is a national security play. Rigetti’s $3.6M in recent U.S. government contracts hints at more where that came from. The CHIPS Act earmarked $52B for tech—quantum could grab a slice.
B. The “First Mover” Edge
Rigetti’s full-stack approach (hardware + software) is rare. Its Quantum Cloud Service already serves blue chips like AWS and Zapata. If quantum advantage arrives by 2028, Rigetti’s IP could be gold.
C. Short Squeeze Potential
With 12% of shares shorted, any positive news (a big contract, tech milestone) could trigger a meme-stock-style rally. The stock’s 90% drop from its SPAC peak makes it a contrarian darling.
—

3. Investor Compass: Navigating RGTI’s Crosscurrents

A. The Long Game
This isn’t a swing trade—it’s a 5-year hold. Analysts at Craig-Hallum (price target: $3) see 100% upside, but only for those with iron stomachs.
B. Hedging Your Bets
Pair RGTI with safer quantum plays like IBM or IonQ. Or wait for clearer skies—Zacks’ “Hold” rating suggests patience.
C. The Bottom Line
Rigetti’s either the next NVIDIA or the next Theranos. For now, it’s a high-risk, high-reward lottery ticket in the quantum casino.
—

Docking Thoughts: To Sail or Not to Sail?

Rigetti’s story is quintessential Silicon Valley: brilliant tech, shaky finances, and a race against time. The stock’s 90% crash already prices in doom, but survival isn’t guaranteed. For speculators, buying sub-$1.50 could be genius—or ruin. For everyone else? Watch the horizon. Quantum’s tide is rising, but only the best ships will float.
Land ho, or shipwreck ahead? Grab your binoculars—and maybe a life jacket.